The Iranian response to international economic sanctions has been extremely counterintuitive. Not only did Iran disregard the sanctions, but also it has increased its number of centrifuges and saber rattled the United States and Israel. While his citizens suffer from a currency depreciated 80% in just a few months, Ahmadinejad increasingly fervently strives for his goals of building a “nuclear deterrent” and “wiping Israel off the map.” Seems strange, doesn’t it?
Just recently, Iran claimed that it had gained images of secret Israeli nuclear facilities from drones that it had supplied to terrorist group Hezbollah running Lebanon. While Israel and much of the international community reasons that Iran could not possibly have such advanced technology, Iran’s Defense Minister assured that Iran does have such a drone and in fact also has much more sophisticated technology. In a similar instance last month, Iran claimed it was producing a missile-carrying drone with a 1,250 mile range. This claim, too, was widely refuted. However, the main issue is not whether or not Iran has this technology. The issue is why Iran is making such information public.
Could it be possible that Iran is trying to provoke a war with the United States and Israel? This frightening proposition seems all too likely. Surprisingly, there are great potential benefits for Iran for a joint U.S.-Israeli invasion of Iran.
This stems from the opposition of NATO nations to assist if the need arose. A war fought just by the United States and Israel would reflect poorly on the two nations as it would show that these countries act with impunity with no regards to the will of the international community including their allies.
Additionally, such a war could be the beginning of the end of the American Empire so to speak. After all, considering Iranian support from many key oil importers such as Russia, it seems that such a war would not be an easy victory. Although nuclear weapons will almost surely not come into place, a defeat would demonstrate the weakening of America’s military and the rise in international prominence of Eastern militaries.
There is not much that the United States and Israel can do to stop these effects other than refusing to declare war in Iran. True, a nuclear Iran would lead to a shift in the power dynamic in the Middle East. Though, a visibly weakened United States would shift the power dynamic much more negatively than would Iranian nuclear armament.